The Madman Theory

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The Madman Theory

He may not. And so, the great game continues, with a madman rolling the dice. Joshua Stowell publishes the Global Security Review. An intriguing comparison with Nixon, but of course, Trump being so unpredictable, it may not hold. But one thing looks likely: we are headed towards a tripolar world, US — Russia -China.

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That leaves Europe out unfortunately — I say unfortunately because I am European and the only thing that might have kept Europe in the game was the EU…But the European Project is currently in deep trouble as Brexit and its fallout has demonstrated , so this analysis here probably stands as is. Many thanks for an unusual insight into what might await us.

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Thank you, Claude. Yes, it will be intriguing dare I say to see what happens in the next year. One can only forecast, at this point.

Is A 'Madman Theory' At Play Regarding North Korea? - Morning Joe - MSNBC

At the start of the millennium, it was thought by some that groundwork was being laid for a new pan-European state, which now seems like a fantasy. The European experiment is in the midst of a perfect storm of economic stagnation, massive humanitarian crises, and security threats from both non-state and state actors.

If the U.

The key flaw in Trump’s approach to ‘madman theory’

By refusing to bestow more sovereign authority upon the EU central government, EU member states are jeopardizing their own interests and influence abroad. You must be logged in to post a comment. I confirm that would like to subscribe to Impakter Editor's Pick Newsletter. December 15, Comments 3.

John Grant’s review of The Madman Theory

Claude Forthomme December 15, Log in to Reply. In late October, Nixon ordered an operation code-named Giant Lance. B bombers loaded with atomic weapons took off from bases in California and Washington State and headed toward the Soviet Union, then flew in loops above the polar ice cap. Sagan and the historian Jeremi Suri called it in a article, remained secret for years. Never before have two leaders in command of nuclear arsenals more closely evoked a professional wrestling match.

It is unsettling that with both men it is hard to know where performance ends and personality begins. Trump rages publicly at Kim, but, then, he rages at everyone, from his staff to Meryl Streep. Kim may not be suicidal, but he has executed his uncle and is reported to have ordered the murder of his half brother. In the history of nuclear diplomacy, no nation-state has ever given up atomic weapons in response to shrill threats. In a number of instances, however, countries have been coaxed to mothball their nuclear programs in exchange for political and economic returns. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons or abandoned advanced programs.

In an interview with Time magazine, he called the attacks on the oil tankers "very minor. For a president whose tough talk on Iran dates back decades, it was discordant. A skeptic might say he was backing down in the face of Iran's provocations. Perhaps it was merely a tactic to continue looking unpredictable. Whichever it is, though, Iran appears intent upon drawing Trump out and seeing whether his bite matches his bark. The situation is unlike others in which Trump has utilized some version of the "madman" approach and other countries have declined to escalate.

Trump threatened North Korea with "fire and fury" and said he would "totally destroy" it, for example, but he and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un have since talked about a potential deal. He's launched an extensive trade war with China, but the two sides are at least still talking even as fears of global recession are creeping in.

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More recently, he threatened bruising tariffs on Mexico if it didn't halt the flow of migrants to the U. The Iran situation may never come to a head, either. Trump could also simply go the sanctions route - which appears to be his punishment of choice - and hope that takes care of it. But what if Iran keeps up the provocations?

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  5. What if its actions more directly impact the United States, as the shooting down of a U. Iran seems to be betting that Trump wants to avoid a Middle Eastern war and that he'll eventually make concessions.

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